New Orleans @ Atlanta
Lay the number NO (-3)
Had you been on board with Sugarbookie and our picks before the preseason you would have gotten a stone cold lock. The Saints opened at (+2) that’s not a typo yes they were getting two points. Oh yeah, and I offered the Saints as a sleeper Super Bowl team to get at 17-1, if you didn’t jump on it you missed the boat they are 9-1 now and no longer a good risk reward. I generally want at least 15-1 on futures to make it worth waiting 18 weeks to get my money back.
Hard Knocks is a great show, they are detailed and in depth. In this case they showcased injuries and weaknesses that the Falcons have, moving the line. The Saints are a much better offense and their offense is going to be semi nuclear. The Falcons are weak at LB and Jimmy Graham is the best in the game. Look for him to light up the scoreboard and the Saints to have this one locked up fairly early. The Saints have a good secondary so they should be able to slow Roudy Roddy and Julio enough to lay the points.
Browns @ Steelers
Take it at (-6.5) leave it at the TD (-7)
I like the Steelers at home against a QB with 4 starts and not a lot of experience. Oh, did I mention every little error he makes he will be looking over his shoulder for Johnny Fucking Football? I don’t like to lay the full TD and some books have moved the line to (-7) if that were the case I would buy the hook and get it back to (-6.5) or just walk away.
Jaguars @ Eagles
Lay double digit points in the NFL….Almost ALWAYS (historically 54% winners)
Here’s the skinny on this pick, the Jags have a terrible reputation, therefore week 1 NOBODY bets them. Well, that’s where you come in; you want to make money right? The Eagles are the “trendy” team right now and people are infatuated with Chip Kelly’s offense. This has forced Vegas to make it a big number for the Jags to get people to bet them. They have a second year coach that was the defensive coordinator when Seattle first started wrecking ship in the hawks nest. He now has had enough time to get his pieces and system in place. Henne has been good when healthy and this offense has some good young pieces, they will actually score this year. The Jaguars will not be the worst team in the NFL this year; in fact I could see them winning 5-7 games. Good news is you will be able to take advantage of their favorable lines for the first few weeks. Don’t miss the boat, bet this line and I would feel confident to bet big. This game is my ***Pick of the week***
Raiders @ Jets
Take the points Raiders (+5.5)
Let’s just be real, neither of these teams are going to be great this year. The Jets could be one of the worst teams in football; do you think they deserve to be one of the biggest favorites this week? I sure don’t. This will be a sloppy game but Derek Carr looked pretty good in the preseason, and they will likely run a lot in this game. The Jets defense is pretty good up front, but their secondary is decimated. They were getting torched by other team’s starters in the preseason. Take the points this will likely be a sloppy game decided by a field goal.
Giants @ Lions
Lay the points Lions (-6)
The Giants are installing a new offense and Eli has had trouble picking it up. He went as far as saying he has trouble understating Ben McAdo’s Pennsylvania accent when he is making the play calls, remember Eli is a good old country boy from Louisiana and prefers a southern drawl. This is more about the Lions and how good they will be then how bad the Giants have looked. They added a WR that can actually punish teams for doubling Megatron in Golden Tate. They hired a coach that will actually hold people accountable for not giving 100% effort. The Lions offense will be really strong under Caldwell and the defense will be more discipline resulting in less penalties extending drives for the opposition. Eli will throw a costly INT and the Lions will win this one by two scores.