Category Archives: Beat Vegas

Week 15 picks ATS

Week 15 picks ATS

Raiders @ Chiefs

I cannot believe this line is so massive. I know that things in SF are in shambles, but that team still has talent. Didn’t the raiders just beat them? The Raiders are starting to turn the corner. It pains me to say it but I’m sure another franchise will step up and match their futility, so we have someone to laugh at each week. I like double digit lines, especially with a team that has looked better vs a team that has struggled to put up points…cough….cough Alex Smith, hope you are enjoying that fat contract. Not to mention the raiders are 19-6 as dogs in the division in their last 25 games.

Cody Says: RAIDERS (+10)

Cowboys @ Eagles

If you were with us for the Turkey day games this stat netted you a winner, and it will do it again. The underdog in the Dallas vs Philly series has covered an impressive 74% now. Do I need to go on? You should be ready to throw down a bet already. If you can hit 74% of the time you would have a Mansion on the beach somewhere telling your butler to get you a drink. Not to mention the Cowboys are killing it on the road this year. They were on short rest and Romo’s back was ailing on thanksgiving. He has had 10 days rest this time. I’m convinced the Cowboys are going to let Murray walk at the end of the season that’s why they are ok running him into the ground. Run+play action=big night for Dez.

Cody Says: COWBOYS +3.5

Texans @ Colts

Luck played bad against the Browns their is no way else to put it. The Texans can be hurt threw the air if they can give Luck enough time. With Reggie Wayne going down its addition by subtraction, Donte Moncrief is a much more explosive player right now. Luck and the Colts in division games, you got that right 11 straight covers. Look for luck to come out and play like a monster and the Colts to clinch the division in big way.

Cody Says: COLTS (-6.5)

Steelers @ Falcons
This game would look like a free money bet when it was Steelers -1 and as the week went on it got to Steelers -3. You had to think wait an under 500 team versus a team that just beat the division leader on the road last week….easy money. Not so fast as Lee Corso would say, it’s a trap. The Steelers have struggled on the road ATS this year and they poured it on the Bengals all in the 4th quarter last week. I can see this being a game where they exhale and let it stay close. Now that the Falcons are getting a full 3 points I’ll take it. Not to mention the Falcons are in first place at 5-8 looking to hold on to the division lead.

Cody Says: FALCONS (+3)

Additionally the Bengals will win but I won’t be a fool and bet my team. I can’t believe that JFF craze got that line bet all the way to 2.5 before the sharps jumped on it.

Week 14 picks ATS

Ravens @ Dolphins
I liked the Ravens in this game with the points until Thursday. When Ngata was suspended it didn’t move the spread but it moved my opinion. With a 3-4 defense no one position is more important against the run then the NT. With a huge hole in the middle that they have to scramble mid week to adjust to I like the Fins. They will be able to run to set up play action and when playing ahead that front four can pin their ears back and go after Flacco. This game would have a bigger spread but the Dolphins looks bad on primetime last week. The Jets just ran and ran and that hurt the Dolphins the Ravens won’t do that.

Cody Says DOLPHINS (-3)

Colts @ Browns
The Colts are missing Vonte Davis which will really hurt them in the passing game. Josh Gordon might have a monster day, but as yourself who’s going to get him the ball? Hoyer has looked so bad the last 7 games and reminds me so much of the Derek Anderson “miracle” season it’s not funny. The Colts are much more talented and need to win out for a shot at a top two seed. I’m playing this strictly on talent, the colts are too good and Luck is smart enough to avoid Haden and pick on the Rookie Gilbert.

Cody Says: COLTS (-3.5)

Seahawks @ Eagles
This game I think will be a tale of two halves. I think the west coast east coast travel situation will cause the Seahawks to start slow, but they are red hot and I don’t think that will stop Sunday. The times that Sanchez has looked bad are when he has been pressured. He will see pressure Sunday and I expect him to have a stinker of a game. The Seahawks will run the ball in the second half and pull away.

Cody Says: SEAHAWKS (+1)

Buccaneers @ Lions
The Lions got the offense rolling last week, but it took long enough. The Bucs defense is improving and they can stop the run. The Lions haven’t handled success well this season and traditionally after turkey day wins. The Lions will win this game, but as I have said in the past double digits favorites in the NFL are usually losers. This is a position play.

Cody Says: BUCCANEERS (+10)

Panthers @ Saints
This is a do or die game for the Panthers. They will finally be giving the majority of the carries to Stewart as the should have all season. The Saint got beat back to back weeks at home before last week, did we forget this? They also gave up 16 points in 2:54 last week at the end of the game, this defense does not tackle well. Cam Newton needs to use his legs and get first downs in this game. The Panthers have played the Saints very close of late so I expect this one to stay close. Again, double digits in the NFL are tough covers. If the team is not substantially better I’m not laying that many points, its a fools errand.

Cody Says: PANTHERS (+10)

Week 13 picks ATS

Sorry that these picks weren’t posted up before the games on Thursday. I thought they were going up on the other site but they didn’t make it in time. None the less here are the picks for Sunday’s games, so far I’m 3-0 this week.

Week 13 NFL picks

Bears @ Lions

This is the toughest road game of the year for any team. Most NFL players say they just start feeling normal from last weeks game on Thursday. Well imagine this scenario you have to get on a plane Wednesday night then play early in the morning. At least the Lions can stay loose all day Wednesday. This game is a big spread but here’s why you have to lay the points. The Bears have looked better the last few weeks, but that’s been against subpar teams. The Lions offense is like the top button on your pants on thanksgiving; about to burst out. Megatron is finally fully healthy and he is about to take a proverbial dump all over this Bears secondary. Who’s going to guard him….Kyle Fuller? I think not look for Megatron and Stafford to have a huge day in their way to a rout!

Cody Says: LIONS (-7)

Seahawks @ Niners
The Seahawks defense seems like they are finally hitting their stride last week. They virtually shut down the cardinals offense. The niners had to kick a FG at the end of the game to beat a poor opponent. I think there is a lot of turmoil in the niners locker room and the Seahawks are one big happy nest now.

Cody Says: SEAHAWKS (+1)

Cardinals @ Falcons
The cardinals offense looked stagnant against the Seahawks last week, but the Seahawks defense is just getting going. The Falcons are still in the playoff race at 4-7 this team is so bad and it starts with the coach. This is a matchup play for me. Mike smith is a terrible coach and Bruce Arians is a great coach. The Falcons will make errors to give this game away and with bad coaching. The Cardinals defense will bring the heat on Matty ice and he will have no where to run.

Cody Says: CARDINALS (-3)

Giants @ Jaguars
The Jags have to be the most frustrating team in the league for me. I’ve taken them as double digit dogs 4 times with nothing to show for it but empty pockets. So I’m going to do something crazy tell you why to take them as a 3 point dog. The Giants last hope for the season was to beat the Cowboys last week and go on a run. That didn’t happen and now they are basically eliminated from the playoffs. They are on a short week and just choked away a game. This spells disaster for a road favorite. The Jags got good pressure on Luck last week and we all know what happens to Eli under pressure, the Jag will become his receivers.

Cody Says: JAGUARS (+3)

Saints & Steelers
The Steelers just watched the rest of their division sweep the Saints, and 2 of them in the SuperDome the last two weeks. The Steelers are 1-14 ATS when favored the week before playing the Bengals….I think they have Tiger phobia! The Saints offense has been better of late and they will be able to put up points. I see this game as a late FG either way as the Steelers might be peeking ahead to next weeks big divisional game in the Queen City

Cody Says: SAINTS (+4.5)

Eagles @ Cowboys
The underdog is covering at a 71% clip in this series since 2010. That alone should be enough to have you wanting to lay the points but here’s some other reasons. The Eagles pass rush is good and the Cowboys won’t be able to pound the rock against them. Not to mention I thing Jerry will be whispering in Garretts ear all week that this is a nationally televised game so he will throw more and try to light up that mega scoreboard in Jerrys world. The Eagles won’t be able to stop Dez but the Cowboys won’t put pressure on Sanchez so he will play well too. Another late game FG winner for me here.

Cody says: EAGLES (+3.5)

Week 4 Picks ATS

Week 4 Picks

Dolphins @ Raiders
Here is the skinny on this game, the Raiders are bad, really bad, but they played ok against the Patriots last week. The public see the Patriots as the team they were 3 years ago not this team.  They are a low ranking offense and have played bad team, like the Raiders.  The Raiders have also traveled to the east coast 2 straight weeks and now are in London, you do the math that’s about 20,000 miles in a few weeks.  They will be happy to get back to their homes in Oakland and sleep in their beds as soon as this game starts to go south.  They have one; yes one, touchdown that didn’t come in garbage time.  This Raiders team is way worse then the public thinks.  I actually like both the game and 1st half lines for the Dolphins, double dip on this game if you are feeling frisky.  The internal issues with the Dolphins are overblown; the Dolphins were 7 point favorites in this game just a week ago.  I have said this before and it’s paid you out, Vegas is never 4 points off.  This Dolphins line manhandled the Pats team just 3 weeks ago.

Cody Says: Lay the points 1st Half DOLPHINS -3 full game DOLPHINS -3.5

Packers @ Bears
The Bears are decimated by injuries and that doesn’t bode well against Aaron Rodgers when he is looking for a bounce back game.  The Bears secondary is now being lead by a rookie, Kyle Fuller is good, but he’s still a rook. Rodgers will exploit that and this defense can be run on, Lacy will finally get going this week.  The Bears are on a short week and it will be too much for them to cover the number.  The Packers know they can’t fall to 1-3; desperation will take over, the Pack will win this one pretty handily.

Cody Says: Lay the Points PACKERS -2

Lions @ Jets
The Lions have Megatron, and a Jets DB said he will shut him out this week. If you didn’t already know this the Jets secondary is trash and now they poked the bear that is Megatron.  Look for him to go bonkers on them.  They Jets can win games when Geno has to throw a lot, and since they wont be able to run on the Lions defense that will happen.

Cody Says: Lay the points LIONS -2.5

Saints @ Cowboys
The Saints are still being bet as people hang on to the fact that they were a SB favorite coming out of the preseason. The Cowboys have drafted offensive linemen in the last few drafts and that has helped their running game.  The Saints can’t tackle a pee wee team; take the points for the home dog.  Teams coming off being a dog, then they are favored in the next week they rarely cover.  The Saints home vs. Road splits are much larger then any other teams as favorites outside of the Superdome they a much different team.  The Road teams when Sean Peyton is the coach cover just over 12% of the games, I am taking the home team and the points.

Cody Says: Take the points COWBOYS +3

Falcons @ Vikings
The Falcons are getting bet like crazy after blowing out the worst team in the league last week. They lose the advantage of the Thursday night game because Cassel got hurt on Sunday; any game plan they put in was lost. Bridgewater is not only a better QB he is much different, you can’t just blitz him blindly he can run and make you pay.  Look for the Vikings to keep this close at home and cover.  If you feel really lucky take the moneyline, I think they might win outright.

Cody Says: take the home dog VIKINGS +3

Patriots @ Chiefs
The Patriots offense is grossly overrated, I know, I know, it’s Brady; he’s like Moses in Chow-da-land. Well, I live with facts, his numbers are down this year his yards per throw are way below his career numbers.  That’s all against bad teams, just like my winning pick last week with the Giants last week, turnover differential has saved the Pats against bad teams.  Alex Smith will protect the rock, and thus the Chiefs will cook up a cover.

Cody Says: CHIEFS +3.5

Jaguars @ Chargers
The Jaguars have skunked me 3 weeks in a row, but I am not giving up on them. With Bortles at the helm now the Jaguars will be much better on offense.  The Chargers lost nearly all of their running backs and will likely sleep on the Jaguars this week.  The Jaguars won’t win this game but a backdoor, garbage time TD will make sure they cover the number.

Cody Says: Take those juicy points JAGUARS +13.5