Week 4 Picks
Last Week (5-2)
Dolphins @ Raiders
Here is the skinny on this game, the Raiders are bad, really bad, but they played ok against the Patriots last week. The public see the Patriots as the team they were 3 years ago not this team. They are a low ranking offense and have played bad team, like the Raiders. The Raiders have also traveled to the east coast 2 straight weeks and now are in London, you do the math that’s about 20,000 miles in a few weeks. They will be happy to get back to their homes in Oakland and sleep in their beds as soon as this game starts to go south. They have one; yes one, touchdown that didn’t come in garbage time. This Raiders team is way worse then the public thinks. I actually like both the game and 1st half lines for the Dolphins, double dip on this game if you are feeling frisky. The internal issues with the Dolphins are overblown; the Dolphins were 7 point favorites in this game just a week ago. I have said this before and it’s paid you out, Vegas is never 4 points off. This Dolphins line manhandled the Pats team just 3 weeks ago.
Cody Says: Lay the points 1st Half DOLPHINS -3 full game DOLPHINS -3.5
Packers @ Bears
The Bears are decimated by injuries and that doesn’t bode well against Aaron Rodgers when he is looking for a bounce back game. The Bears secondary is now being lead by a rookie, Kyle Fuller is good, but he’s still a rook. Rodgers will exploit that and this defense can be run on, Lacy will finally get going this week. The Bears are on a short week and it will be too much for them to cover the number. The Packers know they can’t fall to 1-3; desperation will take over, the Pack will win this one pretty handily.
Cody Says: Lay the Points PACKERS -2
Lions @ Jets
The Lions have Megatron, and a Jets DB said he will shut him out this week. If you didn’t already know this the Jets secondary is trash and now they poked the bear that is Megatron. Look for him to go bonkers on them. They Jets can win games when Geno has to throw a lot, and since they wont be able to run on the Lions defense that will happen.
Cody Says: Lay the points LIONS -2.5
Saints @ Cowboys
The Saints are still being bet as people hang on to the fact that they were a SB favorite coming out of the preseason. The Cowboys have drafted offensive linemen in the last few drafts and that has helped their running game. The Saints can’t tackle a pee wee team; take the points for the home dog. Teams coming off being a dog, then they are favored in the next week they rarely cover. The Saints home vs. Road splits are much larger then any other teams as favorites outside of the Superdome they a much different team. The Road teams when Sean Peyton is the coach cover just over 12% of the games, I am taking the home team and the points.
Cody Says: Take the points COWBOYS +3
Falcons @ Vikings
The Falcons are getting bet like crazy after blowing out the worst team in the league last week. They lose the advantage of the Thursday night game because Cassel got hurt on Sunday; any game plan they put in was lost. Bridgewater is not only a better QB he is much different, you can’t just blitz him blindly he can run and make you pay. Look for the Vikings to keep this close at home and cover. If you feel really lucky take the moneyline, I think they might win outright.
Cody Says: take the home dog VIKINGS +3
Patriots @ Chiefs
The Patriots offense is grossly overrated, I know, I know, it’s Brady; he’s like Moses in Chow-da-land. Well, I live with facts, his numbers are down this year his yards per throw are way below his career numbers. That’s all against bad teams, just like my winning pick last week with the Giants last week, turnover differential has saved the Pats against bad teams. Alex Smith will protect the rock, and thus the Chiefs will cook up a cover.
Cody Says: CHIEFS +3.5
Jaguars @ Chargers
The Jaguars have skunked me 3 weeks in a row, but I am not giving up on them. With Bortles at the helm now the Jaguars will be much better on offense. The Chargers lost nearly all of their running backs and will likely sleep on the Jaguars this week. The Jaguars won’t win this game but a backdoor, garbage time TD will make sure they cover the number.
Cody Says: Take those juicy points JAGUARS +13.5
——————————————————————————————————-Week 3 Picks
Texans @ Giants
Giants have been abysmal on offense struggling to move the ball. So you might think easy money on the Texans here, but is not the case. The Texans have been outgained in both of their games but are second in the league with +5 TO differential. That’s hard to maintain on the road, they lose the turnover battle and probably lose outright. They are probably feeling pretty good about being 2-0. Look for them to sleep on the Giants not cover the points. Eli should be about to audible and run the ball at home, which will help them out. The public is getting to enamored with the Texans last week before the games the Giants were 3 point favorites. Vegas is never 5 points off.
Cody says: take the points GIANTS +2
Broncos @ Seahawks
Seattle dismantled Peyton and the gang on a neutral field in the SB. That crowd is loud and the in the last 10 games the Seahawks are 10-0 in big games (less then 7 point spread) ATS at home. Peyton if best at audibling against the defense, that crowd in this game won’t make that easy.
Cody says: lay the points SEAHAWKS -5
Redskins @ Eagles
Kurt Cousins is a capable QB and the Eagles don’t have a good track record at home ATS. Their offensive line is beat up so the skins should be able to get some pressure on Foles. They have been lucky to squeak out games ATS the last 2 weeks. It won’t happen again.
Cody says: take the points REDSKINS +6.5
49ers @ Cardinals
The niners let one slip away last week as they no it. Unfortunately for the Cardinals that’s like having to go in a barn after your buddy just threw a rock at a hornets nest inside then bolted out the door. Not to mention that Carson is unlikely to play, look for the 49ers to discuise their blitzes and confuse the young QB. The Cardinals defense is good but the 49ers won’t make the same mistake two weeks in a row, they’ll pound the rock all game.
Cody says: lay the points 49ERS -3
Titans @ Bengals
Here’s the scoop, the Bengals can say AJ is going to play all they want. I don’t think he will, even if he does they won’t be looking to feature him with his toe injury. The Bengals held a Falcons offense that is averaging 46.5 points and 530 yards per game to 10 points and 320 yards. The titans front seven is underrated. Both teams will look to win the trenches and run the rock. Run the ball chews up time, I would estimate each time will have about 2 less possessions because of it. Less possessions means less points.
Cody says: pray for defense UNDER 42.5
Bears @ Jets
The Jets are not as good as they have looked and there secondary is beat up and not that good. Tresman is an offensive guru and will have them ready to go in the second half. Cutler, Marshall and the gang will cut through that secondary like a knife through butter in the summer sun. I take the better roster and the points on the road. MetLife stadium is not known for being a rowdy crowd so that doesn’t help them much.
Cody says: throw the dogs a bone BEARS +3
Pittsburgh @ Carolina The Panthers defense looks like the steel curtain of old. The new steel curtain looks more like some pop riveted together sheet metal. Cam Newton will have a big day against that defense, and the Steelers will struggle to move the ball against the Panthers. Not to mention the Panthers are 7-0-1 in there last 8 home games ATS including the win ATS last week.
Cody says: Panthers claw hand is strong lay the points PANTHERS -3.5
Week 2 Picks
Last week 3-4 overall 3-4
Indiana @ Boling Green
Boling Green is on their backup QB and were picked to finish 5 in the east of the MAC. They got smoked by Western Kentucky last week, I think this will not be much different.
Cody says: lay the points INDIANA -8
Georgia @ South Carolina
Georgia is coming off the bye and South Carolina has been in a dog fight the last two weeks. South Carolina is overrated from Clowney still and Georgia didn’t get into rhythm until the second half against Clemson. The SC defense has lots of holes now that every team isn’t double and triple teaming Clowney. Look for Gurley to continue to look like a Heisman candidate in this one.
Cody says: Lay the points GEORGIA -6
Purdue @ Notre Dame
Is Purdue better then Michigan? I don’t think so, and Notre Dame just beat them 31-0. People still are not buying into the Fighting Irish but with Golson under center this team is a real threat. There defense is fast so don’t look for Purdue to score much.
Cody says: lay the big number NOTRE DAME -28 ****pick of the week****
Patriots @ Vikings
The Patriots are a good team, and many picked them as their AFC SB favorite before week one. Did something happen that I missed? They played an improving Dolphins team, that always plays them tough, on the road, in the Miami Heat during week 1. The Patriots were gassed late in that game and Miami took it to them in the trenches. The Vikings played a talented but not established team that had to play an NFL game with their backups, backup…Mike Zimmer’s defense is going to eat that up every time. The Vikings struggle to cover the TE and Zimmer’s scheme does as well, look for Gronk to have a big day.
Cody says: lay the points PATRIOTS -3
Lions @ Panthers
The Panthers may or may not have Cam Newton this week, it wont matter either way. The Lions looked really good and their offense with the a new OC looked to be pretty lethal. Megatron looks 100% for the first time in a while; he is unstoppable. The Panthers defense is stout, but their offense has little passing options and Detroit is strong versus the run. It will be a close game.
Cody says: take the points LIONS +2.5
Jaguars @ Redskins
The Redskins offensive line Rodger Dorn’ed RG3 about 6 times last week; completely whiffing on blocks. The Jaguars have a decent defense so I expect them to be able to get pressure on him too. Neither of these teams are good, and the Jaguars offense looked able to score 17-24 a week. In a situation of two bad teams I’ll take the big points. A lot of this line is still the public perception of the Jaguars. If you just look at the score from last week it looks like a blowout, it really was a couple of unlucky defensive Tds.
Cody says: take the points JAGUARS +5.5
Cardinals @ Giants
This game really doesn’t need much explaination. The Giants have looked awful and are struggling to be comfortable in the new offense. The Cardinals have looked good despite their rash of injuries and suspensions on defense. Both teams are coming of the Monday night short week. I think the Cardinals handle them with ease.
Cody says: get it before it moves CARDINALS -2.5 **pick of the week***
Eagles @ Colts
The Eagles struggled early against the Jaguars and the Colts finished their game red hot. The Eagles are missing 3 of their 5 starting offensive linemen. The NFL is won in the trenches; I don’t expect Foles to have much time to pass. I think Luck has a coming out party on Monday night and Lights up the scoreboard.
Cody says: lay the points COLTS -3
New Orleans @ Atlanta
Lay the number NO (-3)
Had you been on board with Sugarbookie and our picks before the preseason you would have gotten a stone cold lock. The Saints opened at (+2) that’s not a typo yes they were getting two points. Oh yeah, and I offered the Saints as a sleeper Super Bowl team to get at 17-1, if you didn’t jump on it you missed the boat they are 9-1 now and no longer a good risk reward. I generally want at least 15-1 on futures to make it worth waiting 18 weeks to get my money back.
Hard Knocks is a great show, they are detailed and in depth. In this case they showcased injuries and weaknesses that the Falcons have, moving the line. The Saints are a much better offense and their offense is going to be semi nuclear. The Falcons are weak at LB and Jimmy Graham is the best in the game. Look for him to light up the scoreboard and the Saints to have this one locked up fairly early. The Saints have a good secondary so they should be able to slow Roudy Roddy and Julio enough to lay the points.
Browns @ Steelers
Take it at (-6.5) leave it at the TD (-7)
I like the Steelers at home against a QB with 4 starts and not a lot of experience. Oh, did I mention every little error he makes he will be looking over his shoulder for Johnny Fucking Football? I don’t like to lay the full TD and some books have moved the line to (-7) if that were the case I would buy the hook and get it back to (-6.5) or just walk away.
Jaguars @ Eagles
Lay double digit points in the NFL….Almost ALWAYS (historically 54% winners)
Here’s the skinny on this pick, the Jags have a terrible reputation, therefore week 1 NOBODY bets them. Well, that’s where you come in; you want to make money right? The Eagles are the “trendy” team right now and people are infatuated with Chip Kelly’s offense. This has forced Vegas to make it a big number for the Jags to get people to bet them. They have a second year coach that was the defensive coordinator when Seattle first started wrecking ship in the hawks nest. He now has had enough time to get his pieces and system in place. Henne has been good when healthy and this offense has some good young pieces, they will actually score this year. The Jaguars will not be the worst team in the NFL this year; in fact I could see them winning 5-7 games. Good news is you will be able to take advantage of their favorable lines for the first few weeks. Don’t miss the boat, bet this line and I would feel confident to bet big. This game is my ***Pick of the week***
Raiders @ Jets
Take the points Raiders (+5.5)
Let’s just be real, neither of these teams are going to be great this year. The Jets could be one of the worst teams in football; do you think they deserve to be one of the biggest favorites this week? I sure don’t. This will be a sloppy game but Derek Carr looked pretty good in the preseason, and they will likely run a lot in this game. The Jets defense is pretty good up front, but their secondary is decimated. They were getting torched by other team’s starters in the preseason. Take the points this will likely be a sloppy game decided by a field goal.
Giants @ Lions
Lay the points Lions (-6)
The Giants are installing a new offense and Eli has had trouble picking it up. He went as far as saying he has trouble understating Ben McAdo’s Pennsylvania accent when he is making the play calls, remember Eli is a good old country boy from Louisiana and prefers a southern drawl. This is more about the Lions and how good they will be then how bad the Giants have looked. They added a WR that can actually punish teams for doubling Megatron in Golden Tate. They hired a coach that will actually hold people accountable for not giving 100% effort. The Lions offense will be really strong under Caldwell and the defense will be more discipline resulting in less penalties extending drives for the opposition. Eli will throw a costly INT and the Lions will win this one by two scores.